For skilled workers and the employers who sponsor them, the annual H-1B lottery is one of the most consequential events in the U.S. immigration calendar. Each year, the number of registrations submitted far exceeds the number of available visas, and a selection process determines who gets the opportunity to file a full petition. Looking at H-1B visa lottery results over time — across nearly two decades of data — reveals meaningful patterns about how demand has grown, how policy changes have reshaped the odds, and what the current landscape looks like for applicants and employers.
How the lottery works
By law, the U.S. government may approve no more than 85,000 new H-1B visas each year — 65,000 for the general cap and an additional 20,000 reserved for individuals holding a master’s degree or higher from a U.S. institution, as outlined by USCIS. When the number of registrations exceeds this limit, USCIS conducts a lottery to select which registrations may proceed to a full petition filing. The government typically selects more registrations than the cap requires, anticipating that a portion of selected applicants will not complete the petition process or will ultimately be denied.
The first lottery and the recession years
The H-1B program operated for many years without requiring a lottery. Demand was manageable, and qualified applicants with job offers could obtain the visa without competition. That changed in April 2007, when approximately 150,000 applications arrived for 85,000 available spots — triggering the first H-1B lottery. The selection rate that year was approximately 57%, according to Manifest Law analysis of USCIS data.
The lottery effectively disappeared almost as soon as it was created. Between fiscal years 2010 and 2013, demand for H-1B visas fell below the annual cap — a consequence of the global economic downturn that began in 2008. During those years, the filing window stayed open for months because demand was low. In fiscal year 2010, for example, it took about 280 days — until late December 2009 — to reach the cap. With demand that weak, nearly every qualified applicant who filed before the cap was reached got a visa, and no lottery was needed.
Demand returned. The following table reflects selection rates from fiscal year 2008 through fiscal year 2020, based on Manifest Law analysis of USCIS data:
- FY 2008: ~150,000 applications, 57% selection rate
- FY 2009: ~163,000 applications, 52% selection rate
- FY 2010–2013: Below 85,000 cap, no lottery
- FY 2014: ~124,000 applications, 69% selection rate
- FY 2015: ~172,500 applications, 49% selection rate
- FY 2016: ~233,000 applications, 36% selection rate
- FY 2017: ~236,000 applications, 36% selection rate
- FY 2018: ~199,000 applications, 43% selection rate
- FY 2019: 190,098 applications, 45% selection rate
- FY 2020: 201,011 applications, 42% selection rate
The shift to electronic registration
The most significant structural change to the H-1B lottery came in fiscal year 2021, when USCIS introduced an electronic registration system. Before this change, entering the lottery required submitting a complete paper-based H-1B petition — a substantial commitment of time, cost, and preparation. Electronic registration reduced the barrier to entry dramatically, requiring only an online submission and a registration fee.
The effect on participation was immediate and dramatic. According to Manifest Law analysis of USCIS data, eligible registrations grew from approximately 269,000 in fiscal year 2021 to a record peak of 758,994 in fiscal year 2024 (out of 780,884 total registrations submitted that year). Selection rates fell accordingly. The following reflects the electronic registration era:
- FY 2021: 269,424 eligible registrations, 124,415 selected, 46% selection rate
- FY 2022: 301,447 eligible registrations, 131,924 selected, 44% selection rate
- FY 2023: 474,421 eligible registrations, 127,600 selected, 27% selection rate
- FY 2024: 758,994 eligible registrations, 188,400 selected, 25% selection rate
- FY 2025: 470,342 eligible registrations, 135,137 selected, 29% selection rate
- FY 2026: 343,981 eligible registrations, 120,141 selected, 35% selection rate
The fiscal year 2024 selection rate of 25% was the lowest recorded in the history of the lottery. A significant contributing factor was the practice of multiple employers submitting registrations for the same worker — effectively giving certain beneficiaries multiple entries and improving their odds at the expense of others.
Recent reforms and what they mean
USCIS addressed the multiple-registration issue by introducing beneficiary-centric selection beginning in fiscal year 2025. Under this system, each worker is entered into the lottery only once regardless of how many employers register on their behalf. This change contributed to a meaningful reduction in total registrations — from approximately 759,000 in fiscal year 2024 to approximately 470,000 in fiscal year 2025 — and a modest recovery in the selection rate from 25% to 29%.
Beginning with the fiscal year 2027 cycle, USCIS introduced a further structural change: a wage-weighted selection system. Rather than a purely random draw among eligible registrations, the system prioritizes workers who have been offered higher salaries. This represents a meaningful shift in how lottery outcomes are determined and adds compensation structuring as a new dimension of H-1B planning for employers.
What the data means for applicants and employers
At approximately 35% for fiscal year 2026, the current selection rate means that roughly two out of every three registered workers are not selected in a given cycle. For workers who are not selected, exploring alternative nonimmigrant pathways — including the O-1 visa for individuals with extraordinary ability, the TN visa for Canadian and Mexican professionals, and other nonimmigrant categories — is frequently cited as a prudent parallel planning strategy.
For employers, the introduction of the wage-weighted system for fiscal year 2027 makes compensation structuring a more consequential element of H-1B planning than it has been historically. Understanding how the new selection framework affects petition strategy — and planning accordingly — is an area where experienced immigration counsel can provide meaningful guidance.
A note on planning ahead
The history of H-1B lottery selection rates reflects how significantly demand, policy, and administrative structures can shift from one fiscal year to the next. The near-certain outcomes of the early program years bear little resemblance to the competitive environment applicants face today. Staying current on registration rules, selection criteria, and filing deadlines — and working with counsel who understands both the data and the legal landscape — is increasingly important for anyone who depends on this pathway.